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Key points

AI is accelerating faster than expected

Artificial intelligence is no longer just a long-term theme. AI-related investment is exceeding our original expectations and appears to be tracking more like a major technological revolution than a typical business cycle.

We see stronger US growth ahead

We now expect the US economy to grow by 3% in 2027, driven by a structural transformation underpinned by AI investment, productivity gains and continued corporate spending.

The oil shock is creating winners and losers

Conflict-driven energy price increases are weighing on global growth and inflation, but the impact is uneven. Energy-importing regions, such as Europe, are feeling the strain more acutely than the US, where AI-driven growth is helping offset the drag.

Inflation remains a policy challenge

AI investment and higher energy prices are contributing to inflation pressures, which could keep central banks cautious. While longer-term productivity gains should help ease inflation, policymakers are likely to remain vigilant in the near term.

Long-term opportunities remain despite volatility

Markets may experience periods of volatility as investors balance elevated valuations against the transformative potential of AI. Vanguard believes the longer-term outlook remains supported by productivity gains as AI adoption spreads across the global economy.

Watch our video summary

Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist, explains how AI continues to shape our outlook for 2026 and beyond.

Vanguard’s capabilities

Learn how to fine tune your portfolio using Vanguard’s range of investment options.

Fixed income

Whether you want an actively managed bond fund or you want to target niche segments of the fixed income universe, we have the tools necessary.

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Multi-asset

Our industry-leading suite of LifeStrategy funds provide an all-in-one approach for investors seeking a balanced, long-term solution.

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ETFs

In 2025, we expanded our ETF range and cut fees across 13 exposures. Portfolio constructors now have even more tools available as they weigh up allocations for the year ahead.

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Money markets 

Cash shouldn’t be idle – it can serve as a strategic asset in portfolios, especially in uncertain times. Learn more about Vanguard’s money market funds.

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Read our outlook resources

Our 2026 full report and supporting materials are available to read and download. They can also help guide conversations with your clients.

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Investment risk information

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Any projections should be regarded as hypothetical in nature and do not reflect or guarantee future results.

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© 2025 Vanguard Asset Management, Limited. All rights reserved.