Vanguard’s Investment Strategy
Group

Our Investment Strategy Group serves as our lead in-house think tank. This team of economists, investment strategists and quantitative investment analysts produces relevant and rigorous insights on economics, markets, portfolio strategies and investor behaviour to improve investor outcomes and decision-making. The group also develops and oversees our proprietary modelling and forecasting tools.

Key credentials

A global team across disciplines

26 economists across 6 locations, including 8 CFAs and 7 PhDs.

Actionable insights and analysis

An in-house partner to our investment management teams, businesses and senior leadership team.

Rigorous primary research

In-depth primary research on a broad range of topics important to both investors and the industry.

 

Our latest monthly economic and market update


 

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Vanguard economic and market update: recession knocks

Our experts’ latest views on the global economy, including the outlook for growth, inflation, jobs and interest rates.

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Key points

  • US economic resilience has led Vanguard to revise up 2024 GDP expectations and we think rate cuts may not come in 2024.
  • Early signs suggest the euro area economy bottomed in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • Vanguard has lowered its 2024 UK growth expectations.
  • China’s 5% 2024 GDP target may be too ambitious as initial data point to an uneven recovery.  

Our latest asset-class return outlook

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM) is a sophisticated financial simulation engine that powers our investment outlook and asset allocation decisions. You can find the latest forecasts for equity and bond markets below.
 

A global, dynamic model that forecasts the drivers of long-term asset returns such as yield curves and equity market valuations.

Attribution models that attribute asset returns to the drivers.

A simulation engine to model the probability distribution of outcomes.

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024:

A return to sound money

A solid foundation for long-term returns

Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, explains why we believe the rise in interest rates is the single best economic and financial development in 20 years for long-term investors.

Key points

Policy takes hold

We expect monetary policy to become increasingly restrictive in real terms as inflation falls towards central banks’ targets. As economic resilience fades, central banks will be in a position to reduce policy interest rates.

Equilibrium elevated

We believe the neutral rate—a theoretical rate reflecting an economy in balance—is about a percentage point higher than we’ve recently grown accustomed to. Zero interest rates are gone - a higher-rate environment is here to stay.

Bonds are back

Higher interest rates mean higher returns for long-term bond investors, while the return premium of global equities over global bonds we expect over the next decade has further reduced. The case for the balanced portfolio, meanwhile, is stronger than in recent memory.

Webinar

Webinar: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024

Watch our economists share their views on what lies ahead for global growth, inflation and recession risks in 2024 and beyond, as well as our updated 10-year asset return forecasts, in this webinar.

Webinar
Practice management
Investment knowledge