Vanguard’s Investment Strategy

Our Investment Strategy Group serves as our lead in-house think tank. This team of economists, investment strategists and quantitative investment analysts produces relevant and rigorous insights on economics, markets, portfolio strategies and investor behaviour to improve investor outcomes and decision-making. The group also develops and oversees our proprietary modelling and forecasting tools.

Key credentials

A global team across disciplines

26 economists across 6 locations, including 8 CFAs and 7 PhDs.

Actionable insights and analysis

An in-house partner to our investment management teams, businesses and senior leadership team.

Rigorous primary research

In-depth primary research on a broad range of topics important to both investors and the industry.


Our latest monthly economic and market update


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Vanguard economic and market update: rate-cut debate continues

Our experts’ latest views on the global economy, including the outlook for growth, inflation, jobs and interest rates.

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Key points

  • Underlying US economic growth was stronger than the headline reading, with private domestic demand still resilient.
  • The euro area economy grew in the first quarter of 2024, signalling an end to the recession.
  • A strengthening of the UK economy has led us to raise our full-year growth expectations for the country.
  • Mixed signals in China suggest the economic rebound observed in the first quarter of 2024 may be fragile.

Our latest asset-class return outlook

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM) is a sophisticated financial simulation engine that powers our investment outlook and asset allocation decisions. You can find the latest forecasts for equity and bond markets below.

A global, dynamic model that forecasts the drivers of long-term asset returns such as yield curves and equity market valuations.

Attribution models that attribute asset returns to the drivers.

A simulation engine to model the probability distribution of outcomes.

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024:

A return to sound money

A solid foundation for long-term returns

Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, explains why we believe the rise in interest rates is the single best economic and financial development in 20 years for long-term investors.

Key points

Policy takes hold

We expect monetary policy to become increasingly restrictive in real terms as inflation falls towards central banks’ targets. As economic resilience fades, central banks will be in a position to reduce policy interest rates.

Equilibrium elevated

We believe the neutral rate—a theoretical rate reflecting an economy in balance—is about a percentage point higher than we’ve recently grown accustomed to. Zero interest rates are gone - a higher-rate environment is here to stay.

Bonds are back

Higher interest rates mean higher returns for long-term bond investors, while the return premium of global equities over global bonds we expect over the next decade has further reduced. The case for the balanced portfolio, meanwhile, is stronger than in recent memory.


Webinar: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024

Watch our economists share their views on what lies ahead for global growth, inflation and recession risks in 2024 and beyond, as well as our updated 10-year asset return forecasts, in this webinar.

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