Our economists discuss the outlook for 2018 and beyond

08 December 2017 | Markets and Economy


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Can the consensus last? We have grown used to modest economic growth and muted market volatility. Will rising interest rates and full employment disrupt the status quo? Is the link between full employment and inflation broken, or is it just weaker? Might we face a round of rising inflationary expectations triggering higher wages and increasing interest rates? With equity valuations at elevated levels and bond yields at secular lows, should we prepare for an investment outlook of higher risks and lower returns? In the view of Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group, long-term investment returns in the future are likely to be lower than in the past. How should investors respond?

Read Vanguard's 2018 global economic and investment outlook

Peter Westaway

Policy normalisation
After ten years of extraordinary monetary easing, central banks are beginning to tighten. How far will they go and how long will it take? Will looser fiscal policy make up the difference?

Sophie Carlin

What sort of returns should investors expect?
In a world of low inflation, low earnings growth and low economic growth, long-term investment returns in the future are likely to be lower than in the past. How should investors respond?

Alexis Gray

Rising risks to the status quo
For how long can we expect the status quo to hold? The US and UK are tightening monetary policy. Will it kill recovery? Is inflation in the wings? What is the outlook for investment returns? Watch here for a summary introduction to Vanguard’s outlook for 2018.

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Webinar: Vanguard's economic and market outlook 2018
The equity rally has been punching higher for nearly nine years. Do the fundamentals still support positive markets? Or will the mounting risks trigger a correction?


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