Megatrends

Investigating fundamental shifts in the global economy

Vanguard’s Megatrends research explores the fundamental shifts reshaping the global economy - transformations that are poised to impact both the financial services industry and society at large.

AI, demographics and the US economy: Quantifying the coming tug of war

In our latest Megatrends research installment, our data-driven analysis looks at how AI and demographic shifts have the potential to define our economic future.

Will AI transform the way we live?

In this video, we explore the potential impact of artificial intelligence on our day-to-day lives.

Transcript

Could AI be as transformative as electricity? Can it change how we live?

Health, happiness and progress. If we use technology and if we use data, innovation can be predicted.

We just have to know where to look.

This is a future that very few are actually talking about. Not all technologies change the world.

Think of electricity and social media. Both are ubiquitous. They're all around the world.

But only one changed lives and propelled the global economy forward. Why is that?

Well, it turns out big technological advances, what economists call general purpose technologies. They have two distinct dimensions. They're innovative and they're transformative. Innovative technologies change how we work. You can think of the assembly line, or you can think of the computer, right, assembly line, having some automation for us to run faster. Computers to generate new insights. What I call power tools. Right? Power tools. They're complements to the work we do. We almost take for granted how important computers are in today's society, right?

But not all innovative technology is transformative. Transformation is different because it changes how we live. Electricity was transformative because it improved basic human needs. More importantly, electricity was transformative because it enabled knock on effects and other inventions, right? That without electricity they would just simply not have been possible.

So which one will AI be? Innovative, transformative. And could, could AI be both?

Introducing the Vanguard Megatrends Model

The Vanguard Megatrends Model, built on 130+ years of historical data, focuses on how these trends have impacted four key market drivers: long-term growth, inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings:

A uniquely long and rich dataset that captures historical shifts in Megatrends across the US and globally, which strengthens our conviction in spotting emerging trends.

A framework which identifies, analyses and quantifies how key structural forces may influence market dimensions while assigning probabilities to potential investment outcomes.

This analysis sharpens our perspective on our short to mid-term outlook, while reinforcing our long-term structural views and guiding our broader forecasting approach.