Megatrends

Investigating fundamental shifts in the global economy

Vanguard’s Megatrends research explores the fundamental shifts reshaping the global economy - transformations that are poised to impact both the financial services industry and society at large.

AI, demographics and the US economy: Quantifying the coming tug of war

In our latest Megatrends research installment, our data-driven analysis looks at how AI and demographic shifts have the potential to define our economic future.

Will AI transform the way we live?

In this video, we explore the potential impact of artificial intelligence on our day-to-day lives.

Transcript

Could AI be as transformative as electricity? Can it change how we live?

Health, happiness and progress. If we use technology and if we use data, innovation can be predicted.

We just have to know where to look.

This is a future that very few are actually talking about. Not all technologies change the world.

Think of electricity and social media. Both are ubiquitous. They're all around the world.

But only one changed lives and propelled the global economy forward. Why is that?

Well, it turns out big technological advances, what economists call general purpose technologies. They have two distinct dimensions. They're innovative and they're transformative. Innovative technologies change how we work. You can think of the assembly line, or you can think of the computer, right, assembly line, having some automation for us to run faster. Computers to generate new insights. What I call power tools. Right? Power tools. They're complements to the work we do. We almost take for granted how important computers are in today's society, right?

But not all innovative technology is transformative. Transformation is different because it changes how we live. Electricity was transformative because it improved basic human needs. More importantly, electricity was transformative because it enabled knock on effects and other inventions, right? That without electricity they would just simply not have been possible.

So which one will AI be? Innovative, transformative. And could, could AI be both?

Introducing the Vanguard Megatrends Model

The Vanguard Megatrends Model, built on 130+ years of historical data, focuses on how these trends have impacted four key market drivers: long-term growth, inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings:

A uniquely long and rich dataset that captures historical shifts in Megatrends across the US and globally, which strengthens our conviction in spotting emerging trends.

A framework which identifies, analyses and quantifies how key structural forces may influence market dimensions while assigning probabilities to potential investment outcomes.

This analysis sharpens our perspective on our short to mid-term outlook, while reinforcing our long-term structural views and guiding our broader forecasting approach.

The stage at Vanguard Advance during Megatrends: Uncovering the truth beyond the noise

Aug 27, 2025

3 min

Investment risk information

The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.

Important information

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The information contained herein is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation is against the law, or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation, or if the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. The information does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice. You must not, therefore, rely on it when making any investment decisions.

The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell investments.

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Issued in Switzerland by Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.

Issued by Vanguard Asset Management, Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Issued in EEA by Vanguard Group Europe Gmbh, which is regulated in Germany by BaFin.

Investigating fundamental shifts in the global economy

AI, demographics and the US economy: Quantifying the coming tug of war

Will AI transform the way we live?

Transcript

Investing in the age of AI

Introducing the Vanguard Megatrends Model

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