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The unevenness of the Covid-19 pandemic’s effect on economic growth across sectors and by geographic region requires an inspection of both traditional economic data and higher-frequency indicators. New Vanguard Global Macro Matters research analyses these data in estimating when major economies may approach a full recovery. We expect China to do so more quickly than the United States, the euro area or the United Kingdom.

Estimating the economic impact of the Covid-19 shock