As the cycle turns: Late-cycle macro risks and asset allocation
11 July 2019 | Portfolio construction
As the US economy enters the later stages of its economic expansion, returns are projected to be more modest than in previous late-cycle periods. Tailoring a portfolio to this environment can enhance risk and return characteristics, but it can also expose investors to suboptimal portfolios if scenarios develop differently than expected. For investors who lack conviction that a particular risk environment will unfold, the best approach may be to stay disciplined and extend the investment time horizon. Doing so can significantly limit the impact of macro shocks on portfolio returns.