Outlook for 2019 and beyond
07 December 2018 | Markets and Economy
Concerns are growing that a recession may be imminent even though the global economy is entering its tenth year of expansion following the global financial crisis.
Populist governments. Trade wars. Brexit. Rising levels of debt. Higher interest rates. Are we looking down the barrel of recession? Will the bull run seen in equity markets since March 2009 reach its 10-year anniversary? Or is the party finally over?
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Vanguard’s comprehensive global economic and market outlook is now available.
Global outlook summary: Down but not out
Factors in the global economy will raise the recession risk in 2019, but a growth slowdown is the likeliest outcome.
Economic outlook: Down but not out
Will the global slowdown lead to a recession? Will higher interest rates and rising debt levels choke economic activity? Vanguard economists discuss the outlook for growth around the world.
Investment returns: No pain, no gain:
Slowing growth and policy normalisation have spurred bouts of volatility. Will they trigger a bear market? Vanguard economists talk about their expectations for investment returns across a range of asset classes.
Global market outlook: Time to take away the punch bowl
As inflation moves toward central banks’ targets and financial stability risks rise, will global central banks stay on their gradual normalization paths? Vanguard’s chief economist for Europe discusses the outlook for global monetary policy.
Global market outlook: Increasing risks in Italy and the Eurozone
Tension between the Italian government and the European Commission could be one of the key geopolitical risks in Europe in 2019. Vanguard’s senior European economist discusses what this could mean for the Eurozone and for investors.
Webinar: Vanguard's Outlook for 2019: Recession – Yes or No?
The equity rally has been punching higher for nearly nine years. Do the fundamentals still support positive markets? Or will the mounting risks trigger a correction?
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Issued by Vanguard Asset Management, Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. In Switzerland, issued by Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.