2017 economic and market outlook: Stabilisation, not stagnation

12 July 2017 | Markets and Economy


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The economic and market backgrounds are key considerations in building an investment plan. This annual white paper summarises Vanguard’s views on the world’s major economies and sets out our expectations for equity and bond market returns over the next ten years. Key findings in this edition include:

  • Global growth should stabilise, not stagnate.
  • Tighter labour markets should place modest upward pressure on otherwise low inflation, but further monetary stimulus could prove unproductive in spurring unlevered growth.
  • Global bond yields are unlikely to rise materially until the major economies address structural impediments to higher productivity growth.
  • Vanguard’s outlook for portfolio returns is modest compared with recent years.
  • This outlook is unlikely to change until we see a combination of higher short-term rates and more favourable valuations.
  • The investment environment for the next five years may prove more challenging than the previous five, underscoring the need for discipline, reasonable expectations and low-cost strategies.

> Want to learn more? Read the paper in full

Important information:

This document is for professional investors as defined under the MiFID Directive only. In Switzerland for institutional investors only. Not for public distribution.

The information in this document does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice. You must not, therefore, rely on the content of this document when making any investment decisions.

The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Any projections should be regarded as hypothetical in nature and do not reflect or guarantee future results.

Issued by Vanguard Asset Management, Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. In Switzerland issued by Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.


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